HUMAN LOSSES OF USSR IN GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR

by Дмитрий Шеин

Today a "legal" value of human losses of USSR in Great Patriotic War is 26.6 millions of souls. So many group-comrades using this value, trying to compare Soviet losses with German losses and deciding as a result that Soviets have a weak degree of art of war and soldiership... is it correct? In short words: no, completely no.

Let us consider this situation in some details in the form of questions and answers. 1. Do Soviets have the complete list of victims of war with their names and surnames, and 26.6 millions is the length of this list? - No, it is incorrect. 2. Is the 26.6 millions of perished souls the result of direct measurement of some kind - for instance the sum of army losses counted "man-by-man from June 22nd, 1941 until September 2nd, 1945" and "long-long list of loss of civilians"? - No, it is incorrect too. 3. So what is the nature of value 26.6 millions? - It is just an arithmetical estimation.This figure has the next nature: -- let us fix the estimation of Soviet population on June 22nd, 1941 as N-pre-war; -- let us fix the estimation of normal population growth rate by first half of 1941 as k-pre-war; -- so we have the equation N-post-war-estimated = N-pre-war*(k-pre-war-fixed-for-half-of-1941)*(k-pre-war-for-1942)*(k-pre-war-for-1943)*(k-pre-war-for-1944)*(k-pre-war-for-part-of-1945); -- but actual size of Soviet post-war population is lesser, it is N-post-war-real.

So (N-post-war-estimated - N-post-war-real) = 26.6 millions of souls.

4. Which values are included to 26.6 millions? - This is all kinds of losses of population caused by deviation of actual growth rate from growth rate of 1941. It is "bloody losses" of an army - KIA, died of their wounds and MIA which were not identified until their normal life expectancy (approx. until 1993). It is "bloody losses" of civilians suffered during hostilities. It is the victims of German extermination policy. It is the victims of general decrease of standard of living caused by war.

5. How precise is the estimation of 26.6 millions? - It is a pity but this value is just a rough approximation. No, it is not the result of disregard of Soviet authorities toward the value of human being. Let us consider this point in some details. 5.1. The value of pre-war population. The most precise method of evaluation of number of population is the population census. The last pre-war population census was conducted in USSR on 1939 before the outbreak of WW2. There is no problem at the first look, one is in need just to add the number of new-born men and substract the number of dead... but actual the problem is much more complex. The problem is the fact that borders of Soviet Union changed dramatically between 1939 and June 22nd, 1941, and number of population changed too, but USSR never conducted the population census on "new" territories between their gaining and start of Great Patriotic War. So Soviet population on June 22nd, 1941, could be determined not exactly but with some imprecision. Let us consider the figures: - the official result of population census by January 17th, 1939 is 170,5572 millions of people. It is "fixed" start point. But after that... - the ESTIMATED population of "mainland" of USSR on January 1st, 1940 is 173,4613 millions of people, the natural growth is 2.9041 millions of people and growth ratio is 2.9041/170.5572 = 1.7027% - the population of gained territories is evaluated at 22.493 millions of souls, and the sources of evaluation are differed from League of Nation statistics until Molotov's speech at USSR Supreme Council. - so the population of USSR at January 1st, 1940 is evaluated at 195,9543 millions of souls. - there is no EXACT documents about actual grow of population at 1940; there is an ESTIMATION based on data for 8 month of 1940 and it is 2.600 millions of people for all territories of USSR, both "mainland" and "new territories". Please check that both natural growth and growth ratio are less than at 1939! Growth ratio is 2.600/195.9543 = 1.3268% - so finally the EVALUATION of Soviet population on January 1st, 1941 is 198.5543 millions of people. How precise is such an evaluation? It is a pity once more but the most populated territories, West Belorussia and West Ucraine, are covered by precise sources at minimal degree. So actually the population of gained territories could be not the 22.493 millions but any value between 20 and 25 millions of people. Let us fix the Soviet population at January 1st, 1941 as range between 195 and 200 millions of people.

5.2. The natural population growth ratio. As you could see above the estimation of natural growth ratio is varying between 1.7% at 1939 and 1.3% at 1940. How this difference affects the result? Let us consider for simplicity that we are evaluating the Soviet population for January 1st, 1946. So the multiplier is between maximum of (1.7 per 1941) * (1.7 per 1942) * (1.7 per 1943) * (1.7 per 1944) * (1.7 per 1945) = 1.09 for basic ratio 1.7% (so Soviet population could increase per 9% with growth ratio of 1939) and minimum of (1.3 per 1941) * (1.3 per 1942) * (1.3 per 1943) * (1.3 per 1944) * (1.3 per 1945) = 1.07 for basic ratio 1.3% (so Soviet population could increase by 7%).

5.3 So remembering the basic "range" and obtaining that Soviet population at January 1st, 1946 is between (195 * 1.07) = 208.65 and (200 * 1.09) = 218 millions of people. The value of imprecision is about 10 millions of souls. No, they are not the secret victims of Stalin's repressions. They are not the secret victims of evil Red hordes. It is just the indeterminacy caused by imprecision of "input" values. So one has to remember than the human losses of Soviet Union could not be determined more exactly that 10 millions of people, and if we suggest that evaluation 26.6 mln. is the arithmetical middle of such a range than one has to declare that Soviet human losses are between 21.6 mln. of souls and 31.6 millions of souls - just to be correct... One more point. The difference between maximum and minimum growth ration is mere 0.4% but final result is different by ten million of people. So it is necessary to keep in mind that every 0.1% of growth ratio is equal to 2.5 millions of final estimate.

5.4. The value of post-war population. This question is simple and miserable as usual: the first after-war population census was conducted on 1959. If one takes the result (208 to 209 mln. of souls) and substracts the growth per year for 1958-1957-...-1946 than he results at value between 169 and 170 millions of souls. Wow, so we have just one final sustraction - to substract the actual Soviet post-war population from the estimation and so to obtain the evaluation of Soviet demographical losses?.. Of cause no. Why no? Because post-war Soviet borders changed again, USSR ceded some "west" territories to Poland but obtain the ex-East Prussia and South Sakhalin. The exact population of these territories is unknown, so for exactness of evaluation we have to substract this indefinite value of population from unknown value of pre-war population of West Ucraine and West Belorussia and add the unknown population of East Prussia and South Sakhalin to pre-war evaluation of population of USSR...

5.5. But let us fix the current situation: if we'll count only natural growth than the evaluation of human losses is between (208.65 - 170) = 38.65 millions of people and (218 - 169) = 48 mln. of people. But during peacetime as well as during wartime people could die of natural reasons. The evaluation of this value by Soviet specialists is about 11.9 mln. of people. So our final estimation is between (38.65 - 11.9) = 26.75 and (48 - 11.9) = 36.1 mln. of souls. The need to substract the population of ceded regions will decrease such an evaluation for 1 to 1.5 mln. of peoples to 25.25 to 35.1 mln. of peoples.

6. One additional note about imprecision of values. The most populated Western part of Soviet territory becomes an area of hostilities at least twice (one time during German advance and second time during liberation) but many territories suffered four, six and more times. It affects greatly all the documental sources of population statistics. Next point, the number of fugitives is about millions of people. Last point, please keep in mind that we are discussing the events of 1940th. Forget about internet and databases. It is impossible to senq a request from Lviv to Moscow and get the result in seconds or minutes; no, the written form of request is sent by ordinary mail, in week or two it will reach Moscow, in a month or so your Moscow's colleagues will handle the request and in two weeks after that their answer will be delivered to you. And last point, please keep in mind that USSR was multi-language and multi-cultural state so try to distinguish by your ear the surnames Mkhitaryan, Pkhitarian and Khitaryan. Try to determine, two soldiers: Makhmud Nurgaleev and Mokhmut Nurgaliev - are they actually one soldier or two?..

So?.. You are still sure that Soviets suffer 26.6 millions bloody losses at battlefield and only Soviet neglectance of human life interfere the exact evaluation?..